what's happening to ENSO?

Like many weather watchers the Australian Bureau of Meterology has its own El Niño watch page on their website, and today it has some good news

"Summary: El Niño continues to weaken

... it bodes well for a switch towards average or wetter than average conditions across eastern Australia sometime in the late summer or autumn."

CURRENT STATUS as at 31st January 2007

In simple terms that means more rain and maybe even the end to the current drought conditions and it will start happening soon. Assuming it does I will confidently predict now that this will re-ignite a lot of discussion about whether the drought conditions in south-eastern Australia are part of a normal el-nino cycle or that they are evidence of mankind induced climate change.

If you want to monitor the changes in el niño, also known as the southern oscillation (or ENSO), the Noaa/TAO website is a great place to start.